Making a forecast yourself

Find a real subgraph, judge whether it will be queried, and check whether anything is actually serving it.

Checked against Graph Horizon (2025-12-11)

Last read 2026-08-30 Due again 2026-11-30

Every protocol claim below was read at these sources on 2026-08-30. Where they disagree with each other, the entry says so.

No wallet needed. The aim is to make one real forecast and write it down, so that in three months you can find out whether you were right.

Make one real forecast

  • Open Graph Explorer and find a subgraph you can identify a live application behind.
  • Write down, in one sentence, why that data will be queried over the next year.
  • Find the current signal on it, and the query fees it has generated.
  • Compare those two numbers. Is the pool crowded relative to the revenue it produces?
  • Check whether any indexer is currently allocated to it. If none is, ask yourself why.
  • Find a second subgraph with similar fees and much less signal, and say which position you would prefer.
  • Note today’s date beside your one-sentence forecast, and set a reminder to check it in three months.
  • If you could not write the sentence without using the word ‘probably’ twice, that is a finding too.

Before you signal anything

Where next

  • What indexers do with the signal you provide: indexer.
  • Why a subgraph exists at all, and what makes one worth curating: developer.
  • Who sets the parameters you have been reading: governance.